Dear friends,
To begin with, a thought for MOUSSA MARA, who remains imprisoned, reminding us of the “unbearable” conditions in Malian prisons, which Europeans can now imagine even more clearly after their unprecedented heat wave!
As we do on a regular basis, we are reprinting one of his many opinion pieces, through which he has contributed to the democratic debate. Today’s piece focuses on an example of a successful transition, that of Bangladesh…
We also must not forget Clément DEMBELE and Mohamed BAZOUM, as well as the growing number of people who have been arrested recently or have disappeared for political reasons.
Unfortunately, there are now many legitimate concerns regarding a growing number of countries in the region:
A – SENEGAL: A WORRYING STATE OF LIMBO…
Rivalry between the two heads of state:
President Diomaye FAYE may seem weaker than Ousmane SONKO, but he has powerful levers of influence inherent in his office, which is creating a climate of great uncertainty… In particular, he could dissolve the National Assembly in October and hold it in conjunction with the local elections.
Ousmane SONKO wants to govern the country through the National Assembly, which would allow him to introduce legislation; however, he faces obstacles, and his hard-fought election as a member of parliament is severely challenged on legal grounds by the leader of the opposition, Aïssata Tall SALL.
Tensions are rising between the two, a development viewed with mixed feelings by the Senegalese. It seems, however, that the tendency to make things up of SONKO’s could lead to disaster and destroy democracy, which we truly need to move forward:
In fact Sonko, with a track record spanning more than two years, is no longer an opponent yet he continues to employ populist rhetoric characterized by singling out an adversary, playing the victim, and appealing to the people. He can no longer present himself as an outsider to power because he has held the highest offices of state, and his party controlled the National Assembly as well as a large part of the government apparatus…
Yet today we are seeing many difficulties economic including social tensions, concerns in the private sector, business closures, as well asquestions about civil liberties, challenges in education, in theagricultural sector etc.
All of this would require taking stock of the situation, but his strategy is to shift the debate to the level of political narrative with the implicit message that: I am not responsible for anything; I am the people’s ally against the system… Yet he is not an outside observer, but one of the main architects of the major government policies that were defined under his authority, and the key political and administrative officials, chosen by his political camp.
Beyond the financial disclosure statement, there is another democratic requirement: accountability for actions and for public figures’ asset declarations… All of this reveals a trend: that of the growing personalization of political life. The leader becomes the center of gravity, a providential figure… hence the need for an assessment!
A climate of suspicion:
We’ve entered a phase of polarization and dual leadership. There really are two camps. People have become unreasonable…
This is a fragile time for the state. Sociologically speaking, there is a kind of trauma, andpeople are taking advantage of it to manipulate others, which is very frightening becauseyoung people are driven by their emotions.
But today we’re dealing with people hungry for power, fanatics who know how to stir up young people who aren’t aware of the increasingly complex issues at stake! The problem is mainly with 17- and 18-year-olds: it’s a disaster—they haven’t finished their education, and they’re scary because they’re easily manipulated.
There is certainly a republican army , but we have politicized the army and the police, which were once completely neutral, by granting them the right to vote, which was used under President Wade as a means of gaining power.
We lack qualitative analyses.
We need to step outside our comfort zone when it comes to elections. The usual terms are worn out. We need to think “outside the box”: Why have elections?Can we think differently about elections andhow to choose our leaders!??
But there are no more intellectuals in this country. There’s too much emotionalism! We don’t anticipate events… There’s a nostalgia for a Senegal that was once considered the leading country in thought and culture and that is now at the bottom of the class…
Reflections on Leadership:
Given these interdependencies, it is becoming increasingly clear that effective governance requires an experienced president who is well-prepared and possesses a wealth of knowledge, experience, and practical expertise in the administration of the state. (Much like in Benin with Romuald);
What matters most is that business leaders, civil society, and the elite stand with the President. Because what’s important is having someone who can manage this complexity and who understands that “interdependence” is a necessity .
Debt Crisis
“Hidden” debt does indeed exist. The choice of eurobonds—which are quite specific—is debatable: interest is paid, but the principal is not repaid immediately. Therefore, the principal balance does not decrease, which results in having to repay nearly three times the original debt.
The countries that chose this approach thought they would get the oil more quickly…Macky needed money to complete his construction projects, and assessments were undoubtedly made using rather “ rough” methods (The government’s operations were necessarily “unlocked” because, under normal government procedures, this process would have been impossible…)
The budget deficit has indeed doubled and although we have reestablished ties with the IMF—which is a positive sign—that does not solve the problem. We are far from being out of this crisis: we are in the midst of a wait-and-see approach!
B- BURKINA FASO: THE IMPASSE IS SPREADING TO GOVERNING CIRCLES…
Following the arrest of a prominent Imam of a Grand Imam, we are now witnessing a real risk of confrontation between Captain TRAORE and the regime’s second-in-command, Iabre OUMARO, head of intelligence: his home was raided, and since then he has not been seen. There is no longer any communication between them! No one knows what happened. It’s simply probably the fact that power cannot be shared…
Added to this, at a time when the international community is beginning to realize the gravity of the situation in the Sahel in the central Sahel, the diplomatic breakdown in relations between Burkina Faso and France,
This is a selfish decision, initially triggered by Burkina, which penalizes all citizens and is causing a sharp rise in resentment : All the numerous NGOs and organizations funded by France are shutting down, which is creating enormous problems for a large portion of the population, including businesspeople, becauseall travel has been canceled and visa issuance suspended…
C- MALI: STRESS AMONG THE POPULATION IS RAPIDLY INCREASING
In Bamako, everything is shrinking like a shriveling piece of leather. People are under enormous stress: The price per kilo of meat has risen from 2,400 to 5,000 CFA, while the population has become considerably poorer! Even medicines are starting to run out. .. Today, there is only one airline serving Bamako: RAM.
The authorities are destroying forests and cutting down trees to prevent rebels from hiding there, which will inevitably affect the climate as well; they have just destroyed 1 km of protected forest around Bamako.
Everyone is afraid to speak up. The show “Allo-Kledu,” where the audience was given a chance to speak, has just been banned, and we no longer know anything about what’s really going on…
With the working class currently facing extreme poverty, it is hunger that is likely to drive them to take to the streets, along with their exasperation at official rhetoric that remains merely soothing: “We’ve built hospitals, we’ve created 300,000 jobs, etc.”
D- CAMEROON HANGING ON PAUL BIYA’S HEALTH
The news about the President’s health does not seem good. What are the likely scenarios in the event of his death? There is little news about the possible political solutions that must be on everyone’s mind right now…
Now is the time to revisit a vision of development that is particularly
E– LIFE AT THE GIAF GROUP
– RHAMANE Idrissa in his “ GAZETTE PERPENDICULAIRE,” continues his in-depth historical and sociological analysis of the continent, focusing today on the “demonic side that the history of certain countries takes on and this to an unreasonable degree, in Africa…” .
– Paul DERREUMAUX shares with us *FOUR PERSPECTIVES ON AFRICA*, which are particularly relevant to:
1–“ Why was it in France’s interest to hold its new Africa-France Summit in Kenya ”?& nbsp;
Nairobi is truly a thriving African capital! Kenya boasts a number of strengths : A diversified banking system diversified , very high access to electricity high levels of modern and high-performing companies across many sectors and, above all, a dynamic regional organization, the EAC ( 350 million people, including 57 million in Kenya alone). ! To access it, click on this link Regard d’Afrique
2-, “ What impact does the war in the Middle East have on Africa?”
Positive effects, particularly in terms of increased revenue from oil and gas products, but also negative effects on the prices of imported goods, as well as consequences for financing and slowdowns in growth… To access the article, click on this link Regard d’Afrique
3- “ UEMOA Banks: A Cloudless Sky? ”
They have generally performed well, especially in Côte d’Ivoire, but they will need to make some changes in order to participate in larger operations …To access the article, click on this link Regard d’Afrique
4–” RENEWABLE ENERGY in Sub-Saharan Africa “
Part 1 : A transformation that is well underway but uneven. To access it, click this link Regard d’Afrique
–Christian BOUQUET presents an interesting
A key takeaway from this election is that the outgoing president, Patrice TALON, respected the Constitution by not seeking a 3rd term, that the Democratic Party, considered the traditional opposition, was unable to field a candidate because it failed to secure the required number of endorsements, and that the presidential term was extended to 7 years.
– Marie-Roger BILOA appeared on July 8 on France 24 on the show “On va plus loin avec…” at 8:30 p.m. and will appear againon FR24 on July 12 at 8:30 p.m.…
– Congratulations to our friend Patrick SEVAISTRE who has just been elected to the Overseas Academy of Sciences!
Adjaratou AIDARA NDIAYE has just published a widely noted article in Senegal on the irreplaceable role played by the “ “WOMEN SENTINELS” in Africa, titled “Does Knowledge Have a Gender?”
– Caroline ROUSSY has just released, on July 1, a new book in the “PÉPITES JAUNES” collection launched by ELGAS, titled “Essay on African Borders.”
Of note are two essays already included in this collection, written by two members of the GIAF: “ Les bons ressentiments— an essay on postcolonial unease ” published by ELGAS and “ Burying Sankara— an essay on African economiesby Joël Té-Léssia ASSOKO (which I have already strongly recommended you read in connection with our conclusions from Cotonou.)
– THREE very interesting GIAF networking lunches took place in PARIS bringing together Pap NGOM, Kako NUBUPKO, Enéas GAKUSI, Marie-Roger BILOA, Malick DIAWARA, Patrick SEVAISTRE, Jean-Patrice POIRIER, Joël ASSOKO, Jean-François AKANDJI-KOMBÉ, Olivier SIEBER, Laurence DO REGO, Fouad CHEHADI, and Pascal PEYROU.
A luncheon hosted by the GIAF SENEGAL branch was also held in Dakar on Saturday, June 20 attended by Saliou NDIAYE, Lamine LOUM, Aminata NDIAYE, Talla NIANG, Prof. Adjaratou AIDARA NDIAYE, Bassirou SARR, and Pascal PEYROU. Also present was our dear partner from WATHI, Gilles YABI. This meeting, along with a lunch with founding member André SONKO, contributed to the discussion on Senegal described above in point A.
F– CURRENT NEW DEVELOPMENTS
– GEOGRAPHICAL: during a trip to KENYA with ASPEN FRANCE , which had been invited by a new independent organization recently established in Kenya—ASPEN INITIATIVE NAIROBI— I made a few contacts, throughLaurence DO REGO, notably with Sheila MMBIJJIVE, former administrator of ETI and Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya.
The idea of creating a GIAF BRANCH IN KENYA, (a very interesting country, as described above by Paul DERREUMAUX) seemed like a truly timely idea to her and she kindly offered to help us organize it by bringing together a number of prominent figures for a dinner discussion on the topic during our next visit.
Joël BERTRAND, who is a frequent visitor to Kenya—where he owns a home—plans to maintain this connection to further advance the project. The interest among Kenyans in developing cross-regional relationships with West Africa is genuine, as I was able to observe firsthand and also in synergy with the development of North-South relations with Aspen France .
– TOPIC: Following a brilliant Aspen geopolitical luncheon on “Critical Metals at the Heart of Geopolitical Tensions” , contact was established with Moez AJMI, head of mining operations at EY (formerly Ernst & Young) in the international extractive industries sector, particularly in Africa.
Moez AJMI, a world-renowned expert in his field, considers the GIAf initiative in Africa to be very interesting and believes that one could envision a GIAf/EY partnership to organize a conference on the topic of rare metals in Africa (an important yet little-known subject). To be continued…